The knockout stage of the World Cup is a brutal, beautiful theatre of dreams and devastation. And as the groups shake out, one tantalising possibility...
The knockout stage of the World Cup is a brutal, beautiful theatre of dreams and devastation. And as the groups shake out, one tantalising possibility lingers in the air: an all British showdown between England and Scotland. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but the GoalZaza projection tool, updated with live in game data, gives us a clear map of the potential carnage.For England, the path is deceptively tricky. You look at the group and think Gareth Southgate's men should stroll through. But football is rarely that simple. A low block here, a moment of slack transitional play there, and suddenly you are staring down the barrel of a tricky last 16 tie. The projections show that if England top their group, they could face a dangerous side; think a resurgent Netherlands or a physical Ecuador. That is not a walk in the park. That is squeaky bum time from the off.Now, the really juicy bit. Scotland. Steve Clarke's team have shown they can dig in, they can frustrate, they can nick a goal. The GoalZaza model suggests their most likely route to the second round involves finishing second in their group. And if they do that, the bracket opens up. You trace the lines on the projection and there it is: a potential meeting with the Auld Enemy in the quarter finals. Imagine that. Hampden Roar versus Wembley Chorus on the biggest stage of all. The tactical battle would be fascinating. Scotland's organised defence and set piece threat against England's fluid front line. You know the Scots would be up for it. They would be in the mixer, snapping into tackles, playing on the edge.Let's not avoid the elephant in the room though. England have the greater depth, the higher individual quality, the clinical finishing of Harry Kane. But Scotland have heart and a manager who knows how to set up a side to frustrate. The key for England is maintaining their tempo and not getting dragged into a scrap. If Scotland park the bus, England must show patience and tactical flexibility. If they don't, the upset of the tournament is written in the stars. The GoalZaza tool updates every minute, so you can track the live probabilities. But one thing is certain: a England v Scotland knockout match would be the story of the decade. Get your projections ready, folks. This could be special.
