The business end of a World Cup build up has a strange way of turning grown men into amateur mathematicians. You find yourself hunched over a calculat...
The business end of a World Cup build up has a strange way of turning grown men into amateur mathematicians. You find yourself hunched over a calculator at 11pm, trying to work out whether a Cape Verde equaliser in the dying minutes against Spain would hand England a quarter final against Portugal rather than a semi final against Germany. It is, as the lads on the GoalZaza desk will attest, dangerously addictive nonsense. But it is also, in its own peculiar way, the very essence of tournament football. One rogue result, one moment of madness or magic, and the entire bracket goes up in smoke.GoalZaza's own simulation, run with the kind of obsessive detail that keeps the data boys up all night, threw up a rather sobering vision of the knockout stage. Spain, seemingly cruising in their group, conceded a last minute equaliser to Cape Verde. That single goal was catastrophic. It dropped them into a path that led straight to a full blooded Iberian derby against Portugal in the quarter finals. And Portugal, as they did in the Nations League last year, swept them aside with the kind of ruthless efficiency that makes you wonder whether Luis de la Fuente has a proper plan B when the control is lost. The ripple effect was considerable. Portugal marched on to the final, only to be undone by Turkey, who had surprised Germany in the semi finals. Yes, Turkey. In the final. Meanwhile, Scotland, according to this particular model, made the quarter finals. Nobody should be rushing to the bookies with the family silver on the back of this, but it does raise a question. Are we prepared for a world where the predictable giants tumble earlyAll of this brings us to England and the great Opta route calculator. GoalZaza has had a look at the numbers, and it makes for an intriguing read. The algorithm, which takes into account historical performance, squad depth, and that elusive quality we call big tournament experience, paints a path that looks relatively forgiving on paper. But paper is a terrible place to play a World Cup warm up. The reality is that England's tactical flexibility, their ability to shift from a high press to a more measured low block approach, will be tested long before they see a trophy shaped object. And if we take any lessons from that simulation, it is that the draw can get out of whack in a heartbeat. One slip against a team like Iran or the USA, and suddenly you are looking at a quarter final against France or Brazil instead of a semi final against a side you fancy.So as we gather for this friendly against New Zealand, a game that is more about fitness and fine tuning than any grand statement, let us keep a lid on the hype. The calculators are humming, the Opta models are spitting out probabilities, but football, as ever, reserves the right to laugh in the face of data. Enjoy the warm up, keep one eye on the group permutations, but remember what happened to Spain when they took their foot off the gas. A little bit of humility goes a long way in this game.
